US-China War: A Long-Term Conflict Scenario Is No Longer a Fantasy

US-China War: A Long-Term Conflict Scenario Is No Longer a Fantasy

Haziran 19, 2025
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The great conflicts of the past century have taught us a fundamental truth: all wars eventually end. Some conclude with a decisive victory, others with devastating defeat, and some with ambiguous settlements that remain contested in the pages of history. Yet in today’s complex geopolitical chessboard, the assumption that a potential war between the would be brief is increasingly becoming a fading myth.

Why? Because both powers confronting each other today are far removed from their past shadows. China is no longer the modest force it was during the Korean War of the 1950s, and the United States has long since lost its undisputed status as the global superpower of the 1990s. In this new equation, it is nearly impossible for either side to secure a swift and decisive upper hand. That’s why, if such a catastrophic scenario were to unfold, the truly critical questions would be: How long would the war last? And to what extent would it escalate?

ABD-Çin Savaşı: Uzun Süreli Bir Çatışma Senaryosu Artık Hayal Değil

The New Face of

Today, wars are no longer confined to bullets, tanks, or fighter jets. Strategic simulations and academic analyses make it clear that a potential U.S.-China war, sparked by a flashpoint like Taiwan, would not follow the traditional “strike and end” model. Instead, such a conflict could unfold over years—not months.

Moreover, its scope would not remain purely military. The war would likely spill over into economic, technological, diplomatic, and psychological arenas, affecting not just battlefields but boardrooms, supply chains, global institutions, and the public psyche. This would mark a shift from conventional warfare to a full-spectrum conflict that tests the resilience of entire societies.

In some ways, this new form of warfare resembles the Cold War: ideological divisions, global alliances, and proxy conflicts fought through third parties. But that’s where the similarities end. Today’s wars are far more technologically saturated, they target economic interdependence more aggressively, and they leave far less room for diplomacy. Nuclear fears have been replaced by fears of social instability and systemic collapse.

Once, wars were fought to seize territory. Today, they are waged to control data flows, disrupt supply chains, and choke off a rival state’s economic lifelines. Power is no longer projected through armored divisions, but through fiber optic cables. Satellite networks, artificial intelligence systems, digital currency infrastructures, and global logistics hubs have become the new strategic targets.

As a result, modern warfare has evolved into a multi-layered struggle involving not just generals and soldiers, but also engineers, programmers, economists, and even public relations specialists. States must now manage not only enemy armies, but also global public opinion. Because victory is no longer measured by defeating an opponent on the battlefield—it’s defined by rendering their system unsustainable.

And perhaps the most striking truth of all: even when the guns fall silent, the war continues. In cyberspace, through algorithms, and in the volatile movements of economic indicators.

ABD-Çin Savaşı: Uzun Süreli Bir Çatışma Senaryosu Artık Hayal Değil

All Four Paths Lead to a Dead End

In a prolonged U.S.–China war, the four most plausible scenarios promise not “victory,” but mutual exhaustion. Each path ends in a cul-de-sac:

Proxy wars? The shadowy valleys of Afghanistan remain a bitter reminder of how easily such strategies can turn into quagmires.

Direct clashes on third-party soil? The frozen frontlines of Korea and the still-haunting jungles of Vietnam echo the staggering costs of such confrontations.

Limited conflict? This is the hardest to control—and the one most prone to dangerous escalation. One spark could ignite an uncontrollable wildfire.

Escalation-managed warfare? But who, exactly, will trust whom, and when? In a disaster of this scale, “controlled escalation” may be little more than a naïve utopia.

Not Nuclear, But Endless and Draining

A major war no longer needs to end in nuclear apocalypse to be catastrophic. 21st-century conflicts do not annihilate societies overnight—they slowly erode them from within. The real devastation emerges not from explosions, but from the breakdown of continuity.

The most realistic scenario in a potential U.S.–China conflict isn’t a conventional battlefield war, but a long war of attrition. In this war, frontlines are blurred and the weapons are often silent. Consumer confidence, social media manipulation, market volatility, energy price swings, and disruptions to global supply chains—all have become part of the modern arsenal.

Under such conditions, “victory” is less about military triumph and more about breaking the opponent’s economic structure, eroding public resilience, and destabilizing societal order. A rumor spread through social media can devalue a currency faster than any fiscal crisis. A tremor in energy markets can cause more chaos than a brigade of tanks.

More importantly, in this kind of warfare, victory and defeat are no longer clearly defined. When the war ends, it’s possible that no one has truly won. One side may lose industrial capacity, while the other sacrifices geopolitical credibility. Economic fragility, demographic strain, internal political unrest—these become the war’s silent but lasting consequences.

In the modern era, to “win” a war means not to knock the enemy down, but to force them into a continuous cycle of exhaustion—where survival requires constant recovery. This is no longer a test of firepower; it is a test of persistence. And in this test, it’s not a nation’s strength, but its patience, that is ultimately measured.

Conclusion: A New Definition of “Peace” Is Needed

Modern wars have become so complex, so widespread, and so prolonged that defining a clear “victory” or “defeat” is now nearly impossible. No side truly wins, and no side is entirely vanquished. Instead, everyone arrives at the negotiating table drained—of resources, of social cohesion, of political momentum. And this is what we now call “peace.”

But this new kind of peace bears little resemblance to the traditional balance between victors and the defeated. It is, more often than not, just a pause—a temporary intermission to rebuild the economic, technological, and psychological foundations of a greater conflict yet to come. Destruction is not halted; it is simply deferred. And worst of all, during this pause, no one disarms—they reprogram their systems instead.

Today, short wars have become nostalgic tales reserved for history books. The real question now is whether societies, militaries, and political regimes are prepared for long wars. And that preparedness is no longer measured by stockpiles of ammunition alone, but by psychological resilience, economic adaptability, and the ability to manage public perception.

In the emerging world order, “peace” may never reclaim its former meaning—because war itself has changed. It has become a state of continuity. Which leaves us with a sobering question: In a system that sells perpetual conflict as peace, is there anyone left who genuinely seeks peace?

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