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The explosive peak of the Sun’s approximately 11-year activity cycle—known as the solar maximum—has already begun, according to scientists. While many experts suspected this might be the case, the official confirmation came earlier than expected, as researchers typically wait to announce the start of the solar maximum until the active phase begins to decline.
On October 15, representatives from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the International Solar Cycle Prediction Panel (SCPP) confirmed that the solar maximum is underway and may have begun as early as two years ago, well ahead of initial predictions. Researchers also indicated that elevated solar activity is likely to persist for at least another year.
“This announcement does not imply that we’ve reached the peak of solar activity for this cycle,” stated Elsayed Talaat, Director of Space Weather Operations at NOAA, during the announcement. He noted that solar activity could still intensify over the coming months, potentially leading to more spectacular aurora displays and disruptive solar storms on Earth.
Many researchers unaffiliated with the SCPP had already speculated that the solar maximum began earlier this year. However, the SCPP typically refrains from pinpointing the start of the solar maximum until months after solar activity shows a clear decline. The unusually early announcement was likely influenced by a series of significant space weather events in recent weeks and months.
The current solar cycle, known as Solar Cycle 25, began in December 2019, with initial forecasts suggesting a relatively weak solar maximum would occur around 2025, similar to the previous cycle, which peaked between 2011 and 2014.
However, it became evident that these early forecasts underestimated the Sun’s activity. In late 2022 and early 2023, sunspot numbers and the frequency of solar flares began to rise sharply. By June 2023, major outlets like Live Science had already predicted an earlier and more intense solar maximum than initially anticipated. In October of last year, SCPP scientists released an updated forecast indicating the solar maximum could begin as early as early 2024.
“Solar activity has slightly exceeded expectations,” said Lisa Upton, co-chair of the SCPP, during the latest announcement. Nevertheless, she emphasized that the current levels of activity are within the range of what is typically observed during a solar maximum.
So far, 2024 has shown some potentially record-breaking solar activity. For instance, in August, the number of sunspots on the solar surface hit a 23-year high, including the highest daily count since 2001.
The count of X-class solar flares—the most powerful solar explosions—has also surpassed any other year in modern records (dating back to 1996), according to SpaceWeatherLive.com. The most intense flare this cycle occurred on October 3, classified as an X9 event, making it the strongest solar flare since 2017.
Solar flares can propel clouds of plasma and radiation, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), toward Earth. These CMEs can trigger geomagnetic storms, disturbances in Earth’s magnetic field that produce vivid aurora displays.
In May, a barrage of CMEs sparked the most severe geomagnetic storm in 21 years, resulting in one of the most widespread aurora displays in the past 500 years. Several other “severe” geomagnetic storms have impacted Earth this year, with the latest occurring from October 10 to October 11.
It remains to be seen whether solar activity will continue to escalate in the coming year. However, there is a possibility that even stronger solar storms, comparable to the 1859 Carrington Event, could impact Earth, potentially disrupting ground-based infrastructure, causing widespread radio blackouts, and leading to satellite malfunctions.
Link: livescience
