editor
A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll reveals that U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris holds a significant lead over former President Donald Trump among early voters, with a 63% to 34% margin, nearly a 2-to-1 advantage.
However, the situation shifts among those planning to vote on Election Day, where Trump leads with 52% support compared to Harris’s 35%.
Early voting, both by mail and in person, has already started in some states. The poll shows that one in seven respondents has already cast their vote, while a third plan to vote early. Among those intending to vote early, Harris is favored by a 52% to 39% margin.
Nearly half of the poll participants indicated that they plan to wait until Election Day to cast their votes. Overall, Harris has a narrow lead over Trump, with 45% to 44%. The poll, conducted between October 14-18, surveyed 1,000 participants and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
Abortion Rights and the Economy Take Center Stage
Among those who have already voted, “abortion rights/women’s rights” emerged as the top issue, followed by concerns about the economy and inflation. This indicates the areas where campaign efforts may need to focus.
David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, noted that higher early voting rates in Harris’s favor present a strategic advantage for Democrats, giving her more time to secure support from Election Day voters and signaling a strong start heading into November.
Republicans Encourage Early Voting
In the 2020 election, Democrats were almost twice as likely to vote early or by mail compared to Republicans, largely due to Trump’s baseless claims that these voting methods were less secure than in-person voting on Election Day. However, the Republican Party has shifted its stance and is now encouraging its voters to cast their ballots early.
Georgia has already seen record-breaking early voting turnout, with over 1.4 million people casting their votes since polls opened on Tuesday. According to Fox News, more than 1.3 million of these votes were cast in person, while over 80,000 were submitted by mail.
Interpreting Early Voting Trends
While drawing conclusions about the overall election based on early voting is challenging, early ballots tend to come from older voters. According to New York Magazine’s Election Lab data, in nine states reporting the age of early voters, 49% are 65 or older, while only 16% are under 40.
These trends provide insights into voter behavior and campaign strategies as election season intensifies.
