editor
Last week marked a new turning point in global financial history. The “Black Monday” analogy is no exaggeration: Asian markets closed with nearly 10% losses, cryptocurrencies suffered significant declines, and losses deepened across American stock markets. At the center of all this turmoil is a familiar name—Donald Trump.
As Trump ramps up his campaign for re-election, his newly announced tariffs on China and the European Union have sent shockwaves through global markets, signaling the beginning of a new phase in the trade wars. China’s retaliatory move, set to begin on April 10, confirmed that this time, the confrontation is serious—and here to stay.
This scenario isn’t new. We witnessed similar sell-offs during the 2008 global financial crisis and again in 2020 amid the pandemic. But this time, it’s not just about economics. This is also a geopolitical and technological power shift. The issue isn’t merely a trade deficit anymore—it’s about innovation, technological dominance, and the race for global leadership.
Back in 2005, China’s economy was valued at $2.2 trillion, while the U.S. economy stood at $13 trillion. Today, China has grown to $18 trillion, and the U.S. to $28 trillion. The gap is closing fast. If China continues growing at 5% and the U.S. at 2.5% annually, China could surpass the U.S. by 2042. Moreover, China is no longer just a manufacturing hub; it’s a rising force in patents, AI, and electric vehicles.
Trump’s trade policy is a symptom of this broader geopolitical rivalry. “Sometimes medicine tastes bitter,” he says, “but you still need to take it.” His approach reflects not just personal ideology, but also strategic backing from both the American establishment and the grassroots public. In fact, it was part of his first-term agenda and now returns with renewed force.
So why did markets react so harshly?
Because this time, there is no expectation of reversal. Trump didn’t backpedal. China didn’t hesitate. Markets realized this conflict is real—and permanent. And that’s what they’ve started pricing in.
All eyes now turn to the U.S. Federal Reserve. In 2018, during a similar trade conflict, the Fed shifted course and began cutting rates within six months of its last hike. We may see a repeat. Recession fears are growing, and a Fed pivot toward rate cuts is becoming more likely.
Europe, meanwhile, is taking a more cautious approach. But with slow decision-making and high energy costs, the EU remains vulnerable. The U.S. economy grew by 2.8% in 2024 and boasts a stronger labor market—giving it more room to maneuver than Europe.
In the crypto space, the fallout was immediate and brutal. As stock markets tumbled, investors sold off crypto assets to cover margin calls. Combined with uncertainty surrounding Elon Musk’s status and influence, the crypto market’s volatility spiked. With low liquidity and no circuit breakers, these declines can be more intense. Caution is key.
As for Turkey, the outlook is mixed—but not without opportunity. Thanks to its geographic location and industrial base, Turkey could benefit from companies looking to bypass tariffs by routing exports through Turkish production lines. In this new trade environment, Turkey’s strategic positioning is an asset. Turkish assets have shown relative resilience, with only minor losses compared to global markets.
In conclusion, the world is undergoing an economic transformation. Trade wars now go beyond tariffs—they involve technology, data, and strategic influence. And the markets have started to reflect this new reality.
The pressing question now: Who will thrive in this new global order? The answer won’t just be found in economic data—but in strategic foresight.
